Consider this

[zerofailure]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. (Obviously your trying for the car) You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door number 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?


I would say no advantage at all. After the host opens the doors, I still have a 50% chance of opening the right one. No matter what, nothing has changed I do not care about the history and how many doors he has revealed, if there are 2 doors in front of me at that very moment I will always have 50%. I believe that’s what a lot of people think, but I know I am wrong. I’ve pretty much been proven wrong… What do you guys think?

[t-topV6]

Re: Consider this

i wouldn't switch either...but if there was a third option to walk away with (so much cash) or something, i would take that, that would be a sure thing

[zerofailure]

Re: Consider this

think of it this way:

Let's say that you choose your door (out of 3, of course). Then, without showing what's behind any of the doors, Monty says you can stick with your first choice or you can have both of the two other doors. I think most everyone would then take the two doors collectively.

[Firebirdkid96]

Re: Consider this

think of it this way:

Let's say that you choose your door (out of 3, of course). Then, without showing what's behind any of the doors, Monty says you can stick with your first choice or you can have both of the two other doors. I think most everyone would then take the two doors collectively.

Monty wouldn't even bother opening door number three if he didn't already know that you picked the car. It's called using psychology to make you second-guess yourself and then pick two goats over a car.

If you picked door 2 or 3, you picked a goat. he's not going to open another door. you get the goat. if you pick door number one, he'll open number three knowing that he's getting another try at preventing you from taking the expensive prize.

It's cost management.

[Bonemaro]

Re: Consider this

Faaaaarrrrrr out, man...

[youngsc]

Re: Consider this

That's actually describing asian handicapping but assuming noone has knowledge of who will win. The premise being if you have line odds at +200 on door 1 +200 on door 2 and +200 on door 3, equates to 33.3% when converted to probability. Switching that to asian handicapping where you would have an even 50/50 proposition it would be +100. This is the same premise used in betting soccer. Takes it from where you would be at a disadvantage for betting 2 of 3 to where you can hedge your bets play both sides and gurantee yourself a win albeit reduced.

Or if you know that the host knows the answer meet him prior to the show kick the **** out of him till he tells you and go home in a new car. That way would drastically simplify all that I listed above.

[vanbibber]

Re: Consider this

someone just watched 21 didnt they?

variable changes ftw

[Archer]

Re: Consider this

lol yeah.. someone rewinded the hell out of 21 huh! which is a GREAT MOVIE.. makes me want to scam las vegas.. bastards took a dollor from me... lol

damn airport slots..

[zpwn06]

Re: Consider this

Monty wouldn't even bother opening door number three if he didn't already know that you picked the car. It's called using psychology to make you second-guess yourself and then pick two goats over a car.

If you picked door 2 or 3, you picked a goat. he's not going to open another door. you get the goat. if you pick door number one, he'll open number three knowing that he's getting another try at preventing you from taking the expensive prize.

It's cost management.

that would make sense exxcccceeeeppppptttt its actually to the game show's advantage for the prize to be given away pretty often. Like in Vegas, the casino actually benefits when you hit the jackpot because then everybody wants to play that game, you tell your friends, ect.

As long as as the contestants don't win, say, every time the show comes out ahead.

And also, do you get to keep the goats? I like goats.

[Windcharger99]

Re: Consider this

lol yeah.. someone rewinded the hell out of 21 huh! which is a GREAT MOVIE.. makes me want to scam las vegas.. bastards took a dollor from me... lol

damn airport slots..

what they did in the movie 21 doesn't work anymore.

there are soo many ways to cut down card counters. That is why fewer and fewer casinos use an actual shoe for blackjack and they are all starting to use continuous shufflers. More hands per hour, no chance of counting = massive profits. not to mention that 99.9% of people don't even play basic strategy or even close to it and are so scared to split or double down when appropriate that the casinos house advantage in blackjack which should be in th 1% range goes up closer to 9-14%.

even after all is said and done counting cards combined with perfect basic strategy only brings the house advantage down to a negligible amount. adding Ace and face tracking gives you the advantage and it isn't much.

If you are serious about making some money in a casino, determine how much you are willing to win and play baccarat. Let's say you want to win 200 dollars. playing baccarat using the martingale system you should be able to win this amount on a daily basis. There will be times when the system fails, this happens very rarely.

here is how it works. look for a shoe that jumps around from banker to player a lot. bet 200 on banker. if you win take it home, your day is done. if it loses, bet 400 on banker, same thing. if it wins you are now up 200 bucks. If it loses you need to bet 800 the next time. you can do this up to 6400 bucks to win 200 on a $1000 max bet table. this gives you 6 chances to hit player. try tossing a coin 6 times. see if only one time it comes up heads. this is what playing baccarat is all about. it is a 50/50 with the slightest advantage on banker. which is why they take a 5% commission when banker wins. you may have wanted 200 but I am sure you can leave with 190.

The reason the above works is because you are only trying to win 1 unit from the casino. 1 200 dollar unit. it is pretty easy to win 1 unit. people fail using systems because they are greedy or do not have the initial bankroll to do it. for the above you need a bankroll of $12,600 dollars for one try. When using systems 1 try should be 10% of your bankroll. You won't win every time, but you will win most of the time.

The reason you use baccarat other than every other game is because you can bet on multiple spots, and it changes nothing. Unlike blackjack where every hand is independent, or roulette red or black which is not 50/50 since there are the 0 and 00 squares, not to mention table limit.

sorry for the thread hijacking with this long winded reply to casino cheating. I work in a casino and comments about how to cheat them are always amusing.

[Niko97RS]

Re: Consider this

did this in stats class....because you already picked 1 door..one of the other 2 is guaranteed not to be right..by changing your choice and picking the other door you have just picked 2 out of 3 doors....your chances of getting the prize are greater because they elimated a door you know isnt right just because of your first choice.

hard to explain but makes sense in long run

[Firebirdkid96]

Re: Consider this

that would make sense exxcccceeeeppppptttt its actually to the game show's advantage for the prize to be given away pretty often. Like in Vegas, the casino actually benefits when you hit the jackpot because then everybody wants to play that game, you tell your friends, ect.

As long as as the contestants don't win, say, every time the show comes out ahead.

And also, do you get to keep the goats? I like goats.

That would be true if game shows operated on the same premises as casino principles did. Two different situations my friend. Game shows do NOT want you getting a car twice a week.

[savagecamaro96]

Re: Consider this

someone just watched 21 didnt they?

variable changes ftw

x2

good movie

[zerofailure]

Re: Consider this

did this in stats class....because you already picked 1 door..one of the other 2 is guaranteed not to be right..by changing your choice and picking the other door you have just picked 2 out of 3 doors....your chances of getting the prize are greater because they elimated a door you know isnt right just because of your first choice.

hard to explain but makes sense in long run

yeah you are right, its hard for me to believe it though, i just thought it was weird.. Im really weak when it comes to calculating odds, and this one just got to me.

Windcharger99-- Wow....

[kristen]

Re: Consider this

this question is from the movie 21